Stuart’s Thoughts  2/18/2020

2020 Political Battles Heating Up

Whenever someone attempts to make a case for how the economy is actually doing, you are bombarded by a plethora of economic data, charts and graphs intended to justify whatever narrative the author is attempting to make. The reason for this is that data can be presented in many different ways,  and one of those ways is bound to justify the claim, whatever it is.  One also needs to be cautious of supposed statistical proof of a claim.  Statistics should be used in the same way that a drunk uses a lamppost, i.e., for support not illumination. 

 In addressing the question of whether the Trump administration’s policies have been beneficial to the U.S.economy, perhaps the most important measure is really the perception of the American people.  A recent Gallup poll indicated that 61% of those in the poll said they were better off now than they were before Donald Trump became President.

The major reason for this is unlikely found in any one particular statistic but by the rather unique combination of a number of positive factors.  Near record level of consumer optimism, record low unemployment and resulting job participation rate in all sectors, including blacks, hispanics, women, etc., impressive growth in earnings, especially in low income groups, and the resulting improved economic productivity.

The positive feeling about the economy is the core of Trump’s political strength and he will make full use of these data to argue for his reelection.  Meanwhile, the Democrats will need to rebut that argument and present the data in a way that appears to minimize its positive impact while presenting their own “better” way forward.

In politics, perception is everything and the politicians will use every trick in the book to bring about the desired  perception.

It’s interesting to observe the current twitter  battle being waged between Obama and Trump initiated by Obama’s claim that the current strong economy is more due to his 2009 stimulus package than Trumps policies since the 2016 election.  Obama’s claim seems a bit weak since his stimulus focused almost entirely on increased government spending while Trump’s policies have been largely aimed at reving up the private sector with a resulting significant increase in productivity.

And now I see Bloomberg getting into the twitter battles.  Barack and Michael better watch out.  The Donald may be the master of twitter warfare.