The items found on this blog were written during the past few years and strictly reflect my own opinions. Because these articles deal with difficult issues they are bound to be controversial. They reflect my personal analysis based on the limited information that I have. I am certainly no expert and fully respect different opinions. Difficult issues would not be difficult if there were clear-cut answers. Although you will see in reading some of my material, I don't like being pigeonholed with a label, I will admit to being politically independent with a tendency to be more conservative fiscally and slightly more liberal with regard to social issues. Having lived through the 1940's, I have a great appreciation for the sacrifices made by our armed forces and, in fact, all Americans during World War II. The greatness of this country shone bright as we rehabilitated and rebuilt our enemies after winning that war. I am very patriotic and proud of our country. While we are far from perfect, we're not as far from that ideal as most other countries in the world.

Thursday, December 5, 2019


Stuart’s Thoughts 12/5/2019

Global Warming (Climate Change) Update


Several years ago, I included an analysis of the question regarding the human involvement in global climate change in my book “ A Path To The Gold”.  In that analysis I pointed out several relevant facts that many have overlooked.  One fact is that in addressing this issue, most look at it as a single question, i.e., is  human activity the primary cause of current global warming or “climate change”.  However, it is really a sequence of at least 5 questions: Is earths climate currently warming? Note! earth’s climate has throughout its history experienced multiple cycles of cooling and warming.  In other words, earth’s climate is constantly changing.  If we concluded that earth’s climate is currently warming, the second question is whether the rate of warming is unusually rapid, i.e., faster than ever seen in the past.  If the answer to that question is  yes, the next question asks is this more rapid rate of warming due to the greenhouse effect.  Again, if the answer to this question is yes, the next question asks, is this due primarily to CO2.  Finally, if the answer to this fourth question is yes, the final question asks, is this exceptional increase in atmospheric CO2 primarily due to human activity?

Thus, you have a 5 question conditional probability sequence which led to my conclusion that the probability of the entire sequence of being “yes” is 10% or slightly less.  I understand that this is strictly an individual, non scientific, guestimate, but points out one way someone  can seriously question the overall axiom that human activity is doing great harm to the planet.
Rather than carrying on this contentious debate, we could agree to talk about the problem of environmental pollution rather than climate change. I think we could all agree that limiting pollution as much as possible would be a good thing.  After all why would anyone want to live in an environment of polluted land, air and/or water?  Human pollution of the environment is much easier to measure and there are few if any natural causes of pollution to correct for other than volcanic activity.  By focusing on reducing pollution, we would be agreeing on a target that makes sense to us all and, if human induced climate change is ameliorated in the process, we all will be happy.

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