Stuart's Thoughts 1/26/2019

2019 - Possibilities and Threats

Survival is the most fundamental biologic drive that infuses every cell of every living entity that exists on earth or has ever existed.  Considering the science of Biology, the science of life, we notice a number of trends or concepts that appear to be universal regardless of the specific life form being studied.  Survival, along with a drive to enhance quality of life form the basis of nearly all of our thoughts and actions.  When we speak of survival, we are referring to a multiple level concept, survival of life in general, survival of a kingdom, plant or animal, survival of a species, survival of a genus, survival of a race, survival of an ethnicity, survival of a nationality, survival of a community, survival of a family and ultimately survival of an individual.  While the above list could likely be expanded, the idea is that survival is basic to life itself and may be why so much life and so many life forms permeate existence.  Secondary only to survival itself, optimization of life quality ranks high on the scale of biologic drives.  In fact, it can be argued that all other biologic drives fit into these two major categories.

This fundamental principle of science , thus, leads us to a consideration of the possibilities and threats that we face on a daily basis as we follow the path of life.  Humans, as well as many other species, tend to form groups as a means of optimizing protection from numerous threats in the environment including hose coming from other individuals or groups.  In general, enhanced survival and/or optimization of life quality may often be achieved when individuals or groups cooperate in meeting challenges.  Conversely, survival an/or life quality can be seriously challenged when individuals or groups compete, especially in competition for scarce essential resources.  As we have too often witnessed, violence ensues as competition intensifies and, on a large scale, can lead to war.  It has been estimated that upwards of a total of 1 billion humans have been killed in all wars in history.

In light of this, we humans would be well served to be wary of threats particularly evolving or intensifying threats.  An increasing tone or buildup of negativity often proceeds the realization of threatening behavior.  The recent flood of negativity following the 2016 presidential election is of great concern.

In the wake of the constant, 24 hour, deluge of negativity we are exposed to by the news media, it is often a daunting task for the average person to recognize hidden nuggets of positive hope, much less explore possibilities for our lives to dramatically improve in the future.  However, as an average individual with probably average knowledge of world affairs, I thought it would be interesting, and refreshing to escape the toxic, negative atmosphere of the time and explore the positive side of world events with the goal of focusing on some of the opportunities we have for making things better for humanity in the long run.

However, before heading down the path of optimism, one must acknowledge how rapidly the current flood for negativity seems to be rising toward a future tsunami.  While I don’t intend to be consumed by delving deeply into this negativity, I want to quickly mention some key components and suggest how we might temporarily put them aside, in order to more fully focus on the positive.  As that old Johnny Mercer song suggests “Accentuate the Positive, Eliminate the Negative and don’t mess with Mr. In Between”.  that’s easy to say, or sing (for some), but can we actually do it?  I don’t know for sure but, while some may be reluctant or not mentally ready to go down that road, I’m taking a shot.  Let’s see where it leads.

Negativity - I will only mention a few of the most prominent of these and then set them aside for the balance of this “positive essay”.  However, before I begin this exploration, I feel it’s almost necessary to provide my perception of human orientation in the vast “web” of existence.

In considering the entire known realm of existence, including our concept of the universe, we can summarize this orientation by recognizing we are a life form at the top end of the animal kingdom living in harmony with the other arm of life, the plant kingdom.  Are there other forms of life?  There very likely may be throughout all existence but animals and plants seem to be essentially it for earth.  Due to time and space constraints, the environment of the earth is the realm of existence that my remarks below will focus on.

As previously suggested, consciously or subconsciously, every thought and action is directed toward enhancing our survival but, more accurately, enhancing the survival of those incredible bits of matter that comprise  our essence, our genes.  It is the genes that account for only about 0.1% of our body mass and yet, it is this tiny bit of living matter that controls the remaining 99.9% of what comprises us.  The genes issue their orders via a constant stream of biochemical signals that direct our bodies and our minds to respond to our environment in specific ways, i.e., ways that will enhance genetic survival and not necessarily the survival of the individual.  This may be why mothers of lower animals as well as humans protect their young sometimes sacrificing their own life in order to save the next generation. We see examples in certain species such as the salmon,  where the only biologically essential function of the adult seems to be to give rise to the next generation.  Adult Pacific salmon spawn and then soon die.  The most extreme example of this is the Mayfly whose life span is only 24 hours.  In that time it is born, gives rise to the next generation and then dies, an extremely short 24 hour life cycle.

If we now focus on human behavior, certain seemingly self centered behaviors might become more understandable.   In the world of the career politician, his/her survival is seen as winning the next election.  While in reality, it may only be survival of a phase of a professional career, losing an election to some is a fate worse than death.  Thus, some politicians will do anything to avoid losing, most of which includes lying to the electorate or, at least engaging in gross exaggeration of their accomplishments and future plans.  Surprisingly, this strategy can be very effective in controlling the electorate, especially their followers.  A stunning example of how effective lying can be  is found in a short book by Andy Andrews, “How Do You Kill 11 Million People”.  This book is a condensed account of how Hitler and his Nazi Party, only about 10% of the general German population, accomplished this in the early 1940s in spite of the ominous evidence of horrific action in full view of many in that country.

Political lying is a way of life for many politicians in our own country that we have come to expect and too often dismiss with a simple nod, saying well what do you expect, he’s a politician. This is of great concern but what is of even greater concern is how this tendency for lying has been enthusiastically taken up by the media.  News broadcasts in years past primarily consisted of simple, factual reporting of the day’s news events.  Such things as troop deployments, bombing runs and a variety of other World War II encounters reported by war correspondents from the battlefields usually comprised the nightly news during that era.  Today, political opinion, often taking the side of one side of the political isle or the other has largely replaced strict factual news reporting.  Unfortunately, the overwhelming portion of this is extreme negativity, obviously aimed at attracting an audience .  Are we beginning to see a repeat of public indifference to political lying?

Let us briefly examine several aspects of this before taking to the more comfortably ground of positivity.

1. Negativity: Some quirk in the human mind causes us to find more interest in a story  of a tragic attack of violence or the latest sexual harassment charges against a high profile Hollywood or political icon then on a story involving almost anything strictly positive.  Money is nearly always the root cause of this choice. For the news media, negativity attracts followers and advertisers will naturally financially reward outlets with the most readers or listeners.  

2. Inefficiency: Corruption and extreme political animosity characterize most national governments.  The individual goals of too many politicians is to increase their personal  wealth and power rather than improving the lives of their constituency and this can be traced back to the fundamental drivers of human behavior, the first being survival of the fittest.  I’ve explored genetic survival above and survival in general in past writings and will have no more to say about it at this time. 

      3. Basic tendency for humans to be dishonest, e.g., to disobey laws that stand in our             
          way, e.g., how many of us willingly break the law by exceeding the speed limit on the 
          highway, and how many of us fail to see our individual weaknesses in this regard.  As    
          above, this can also be traced back to the fundamental determinants of human behavior.          way, e.g., how many of us willingly break the law by exceeding the speed limit on the
          highway, and how many of us fail to see our individual weaknesses in this regard.  As  
          above, this can also be traced back to the fundamental determinants of human behavior.

Enough negativity let’s try to forget how much we dislike or often “hate” a particular group, political party, politician or even other’s ideas.  Let’s now turn the page and explore what wonderful things might be possible with a positive rather than negative outlook and attitude.  This approach would seem appropriate for the three opportunity areas outlined below.

However, before launching into three specific issues, several general relevant comments are needed.  In my opinion, much of the lack of progress in a positive direction is due to the fact that most suggestions seem to originate with the politicians.  Wouldn’t it be preferable for suggestions to be products of a well thought out decision analysis conducted by a highly knowledgeable team of experts with specific knowledge and experience of the topic. For example, why not replace the recent disagreements regarding the need and potential efficacy of a border barrier or wall debated at a grammar school level by politicians with limited knowledge by the informed decision analysis by those who really know something about the subject.   It would be fine for the politicians to designate a final goal in resolving problems but the strategy for arriving at the best solution, i.e, that strategy that has the highest probability of achieving the desired end result or objective should be left to the experts.  In fact, why wouldn’t all major policy strategies be formulated by decision panels of experts following the setting of objectives by our politicians with the aid of their own top advisors.

      

Immigration Reform:

I think most politicians on both sides of the aisle would like to end up with a secure border, a smooth running immigration system, efficient and thorough processing of applicants and essentially no problem with illegal border entry.  They would like to have the headache resolved of how to handle the millions of illegal immigrants already in this country, including the members of DACA.

Without playing expert and specifying specific strategies, one could reasonably suggest what the steps might be 1. secure the border to minimize the opportunity for illegal entry, 2. establish immigration standard metrics concerning desired types and numbers of immigrants to be processed each year, 3. streamline the application/approval for the entry process so unacceptable wait times are eliminated and, a process to quickly and fairly resolve the existing illegal resident problem, a problem whose cause is as much due to irresponsible government handling of immigration for the past 40 yrs.

This is the easiest of my three example problems to solve.  The second and third grow exponentially more difficult to resolve, but, let us at least suggest what possibilities may be achieved with a positive attitude.

Universal Medical Care:

This is a problem that, on the surface sounds nearly impossible to resolve.  One would think that the ideal objective would be to have any and all medical services and treatments available to everyone in need.  Regardless of how wealthy or poor you may be, if effective treatment of your disease is needed and it is available, you will be able to obtain it.

The annual cost of treating many chronic diseases can be in the range of $10,000 - $20,000 per year or more and complex surgeries such as a heart transplant, liver transplant etc. can range up to $1 million.  Furthermore, as medical science progresses physicians are able to treat an increasing number of the most severe medical challenges with an ever expanding arsenal of highly sophisticated equipment and therapies.  In other words, the cost of medical care is increasing at a rapid rate and fewer and fewer can afford it.  Hopefully, an expert panel composed of physicians, hospital administrators, insurance administrators and underwriters as well as any others knowledgeable in related areas can devise a strategy for effectively addressing this especially challenging issue.  My guess is that the ultimate answer will likely be an intricate insurance program involving a portion of public aid to assist low income groups make premium payments. 

Extreme Derangement of Wealth:

If there is a more intransigent problem in our country, much less the entire world, I can’t imagine what it would be.  Once again, it would take an all-star expert panel to have a prayer in attacking this one.  Certainly, the usual liberal approach of large increases of taxes on the rich which has previously failed so many times on similar but much less serious situations should be categorically avoided.   My personal feeling is that a best approach will require a consistent and persistent world-wide effort focusing on assisting the lower income groups to rise socially and economically toward the top in all relevant areas, as opposed to an effort to drag the rich down toward the bottom.  As can be seen this is an enormous challenge but human brain-storming and creativity has accomplished near miracles in the past.